Impacts of climate change on peak streamflow in Kakia-Esamburmbur Sub-catchment of Enkare Narok River catchment, Kenya

Authors

  • Ornella Tsoudje Tchouateu Civil Engineering Department, Pan African University Institute for Basic Sciences, Technology, and Innovation (PAUISTI), P. O. Box 62000-00200, Nairobi, Kenya
  • Hosea M. Mwangi Soil, Water and Environmental Engineering Department, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT). P. O. Box 62000-00200 Nairobi Kenya.
  • Joseph K. Sang Soil, Water and Environmental Engineering Department, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT). P. O. Box 62000-00200 Nairobi Kenya.
  • Hannah N. Ngugi Soil, Water and Environmental Engineering Department, Jomo Kenyatta University of Agriculture and Technology (JKUAT). P. O. Box 62000-00200 Nairobi Kenya.

Keywords:

Climate change, SWAT, Gumbel’s distribution, flood magnitude.

Abstract

Climate change has shown significant effects on catchment water balance mainly linked to hydrological extremes. Hence,
the objective of this study was to predict the impacts of climate change on peak streamflow in flood prone Kakia-Esamburmbur
sub-catchment of Narok County, Kenya. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to simulate the impacts of climate
change on peak streamflow, whereas Gumbel distribution was used to project the peak flows (for base simulation and two climate
change periods). Three climate change scenarios were simulated based on International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected
for the East Africa region. These scenarios were Representative Concentration Pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6), RCP4.5 and RCP8.5.
Gumbel distribution method was used to determine the peaks of the simulated streamflow corresponding to 2, 5, 10, 50, and 100-
year return periods (T). Model performance values obtained for calibration and validation were Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE):
0.57 and 0.52, coefficient of determination (R 2 ): 0.61 and 0.66, and percent bias (PBIAS): 5.8% and 24%. The simulation showed
that the change in peak flood will respectively increase by 6.7% to 8.2% for Period 1 and between 18.5% and 24.3% for Period 2
for floods of return periods between 2 and 100 years. The findings of this study provide useful insights for developing flood risk
management strategies for Narok town.

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Published

2020-09-16

How to Cite

Tchouateu, O. T., Mwangi, H. M., Sang, J. K., & Ngugi, H. N. (2020). Impacts of climate change on peak streamflow in Kakia-Esamburmbur Sub-catchment of Enkare Narok River catchment, Kenya. JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE RESEARCH IN ENGINEERING, 5(4), 194-205. Retrieved from https://jsre.jkuat.ac.ke/index.php/jsre/article/view/99

Issue

Vol. 5 No. 4 (2020): JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE RESEARCH IN ENGINEERING

Section

Articles

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